May 5, 2014

Temperature is currently 51 F with a dew point of 36 F. Winds are out of the east at 8 mph and barometric pressure is declining from yesterday to 1015 mb. It looks like a storm system is coming in which could make some thunderstorms tomorrow night. A large stationary front is stretching all the way from Montana to the east coast. The areas close to the Rockies are building up water vapor in the atmosphere because winds are pressing inward from the west coast. The polar jet stream is helping too by slowing down with a trough at Oregon and curving back up over the Northern United States. It's making a highway of wind that's driving right through Wisconsin. This could have something to do with the forecasted storms tomorrow.

May 4, 2014

Today pressure has risen almost 6 mb to 1016 mb. The center of this high is over Superior and appears to be moving southeast. Water vapor is very present over Wisconsin and Minnesota, and Northern Minnesota is currently seeing some scattered showers and even some snow. Winds are out of the southeast at 7 mph currently. Temperature is 53 F and dew point is 24 F. This difference between temperature and dew point is a lot larger than this past week. The sounding diagram shows very stable conditions with an LI of 16, a KI of 6, and a condensation level at 721 m in the atmosphere. As the heat from the southern plains continues pressing north the jet stream will also be pushing north. Here's a diagram of the early week pattern this week.

May 3, 2014

Today the skies finally cleared up a bit and scattered cumulus clouds have moved in. Winds are northwest at 10 mph coming all the way from northern Canada's low pressure system in Hudson Bay. The polar jet has become very erradict, but it's still merging with the subtropic jet on the east coast still creating a lot of water vapor off the coast. Weather has been relatively nice because of this shift in the jet pattern. A long stationary front now sits west of us as you can see from the current surface map.The low that sat on top of us for almost a week has moved east bringing precipitation to the northeast coast. Barometric pressure has risen to 1010 mb because of the cold front that pushed through Wisconsin yesterday bringing high pressure. Temperature is currently 55 F while dew point is sitting at 29 F. This makes air stable with an LI of 10 and KI of 16 which means we won't be seeing any rain for a little while. That's all for now!

May 2, 2014

This weekend Texas and Oklahoma are expected to see some record highs as the jet stream shifts north. This will translate to warmer weather for the east and midwest by next week. The polar jet will hopefully straighten out by later this week, but currently it is forming a trough over the mid eastern United States as seen from this photo below.  This is still causing massive amounts of water vapor off the east coast as you can see by this water vapor map.

Meanwhile in the midwest we still have an overcast sky, and a chance for showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. This is from the approaching low pressure system that was situated North in Canada a these past couple days. The cold front is now pushing down where the trough in the jet stream is seen on the map. This is typical for this inverted omega blocking pattern and high pressure has formed on the outer edges of the polar jet stream as well with centers in New Orleans, Northern California, and New Mexico.

Current temperature is 48 F with dew point at 40 F. Winds are finally out of the west at 9 mph and barometric pressure is 1006 mb 3 less than yesterday. This is a sign of that low pressure moving in from the northwest. This low is also causing the wind to be from the west as it circulates clockwise.

May 1, 2014

Today winds are out of the northwest at 3 mph. High pressure systems are forming all around the omega blocking pattern from the Rockies down to Texas, and over to New Orleans. The low that was centered over us yesterday has moved to the tip of Michigan. Showers are still likely tomorrow as the low pressure system has left a dry line behind it. Temperature and dew point are still meeting each other 1000 meters in the air. Dew point has risen to 1009 mb, temperature is 45 F and dew point is 38 F. It's going to remain mostly cloudy tomorrow with isolated showers, and winds shifting from the west. It should start clearing up by Sunday with high pressure on the horizon. The jet stream is still merging with the subtropical jet stream, but its path has moved east of us which means less water vapor.

April 30, 2014

Today it looks like the low pressure center has become centered over Wisconsin. I was wrong forecasting it would move east because it actually moved north right into us. Winds however have shifted to a west north west source which is a sign of better weather on the horizon. Dew point is still matched with temperature until about 1600 meters into the atmosphere, but it lags behind the rest of the way to the tropopause. Water vapor is forming a wide coma shaped pattern around the great lakes which is probably where the rain is going to come from tomorrow and Friday. Below I have a picture describing this pattern. Barometric pressure is 1006 mb, but I still expect this to rise later this week. Besides weather in the Midwest we have a low pressure system making its way across the western United States. It seems very widespread because contour lines are very thick. I would expect this to move in once we get rid of this low pressure system.

April 29, 2014

Dew point and temperature are still very close, and winds are blowing from the east which means rain is going to continue for awhile longer. The low pressure system is now south of us, and winds are moving north. This means we're going to start to see a cease of rain by Thursday once winds start blowing from the west. Winds have already decreased to 7 mph which is another good sign of less rain.

Current temperature is 38 F due to cold air coming in from the north. Barometric pressure is 1005 mb, and should continue to rise as this low pressure system moves further away. Finally dew point is 36 F making it very easy for water vapor to condensate which is why we've seen rain all day, and probably throughout tomorrow as well. It should start to warm up by Thursday as wind direction changes, and the warm front moving through Michigan curves towards us. Here's a surface map of the ideas I've talked about.