April 30, 2014

Today it looks like the low pressure center has become centered over Wisconsin. I was wrong forecasting it would move east because it actually moved north right into us. Winds however have shifted to a west north west source which is a sign of better weather on the horizon. Dew point is still matched with temperature until about 1600 meters into the atmosphere, but it lags behind the rest of the way to the tropopause. Water vapor is forming a wide coma shaped pattern around the great lakes which is probably where the rain is going to come from tomorrow and Friday. Below I have a picture describing this pattern. Barometric pressure is 1006 mb, but I still expect this to rise later this week. Besides weather in the Midwest we have a low pressure system making its way across the western United States. It seems very widespread because contour lines are very thick. I would expect this to move in once we get rid of this low pressure system.

April 29, 2014

Dew point and temperature are still very close, and winds are blowing from the east which means rain is going to continue for awhile longer. The low pressure system is now south of us, and winds are moving north. This means we're going to start to see a cease of rain by Thursday once winds start blowing from the west. Winds have already decreased to 7 mph which is another good sign of less rain.

Current temperature is 38 F due to cold air coming in from the north. Barometric pressure is 1005 mb, and should continue to rise as this low pressure system moves further away. Finally dew point is 36 F making it very easy for water vapor to condensate which is why we've seen rain all day, and probably throughout tomorrow as well. It should start to warm up by Thursday as wind direction changes, and the warm front moving through Michigan curves towards us. Here's a surface map of the ideas I've talked about.

April 28, 2014

Today temperature is 45 F with a dew point of 36 F. Winds are out of the east at 20 mph and barometric pressure is 1006 mb. Temperature and dew point remain almost neck and neck throughout most of the atmosphere up to about 1000 m. This is allowing water vapor to condensate very easily. The jet stream has curved immensely, and partly the reason for all these storms associated with low pressure this week.

On the outskirts of the jet pattern people are experiencing unseasonably warm weather for this time of year. They're also getting very dry air on the west coast partly because of this jet stream pattern pushing water vapor north.

The easterly win d pattern were seeing is because of the big low pressure system near Nebraska that is spinning surface wind patterns counter-clockwise towards us. Because of the two fronts being so close to each other were seeing some very strong storms that are going to last most of the week because of the jet stream pattern. Here's a look at the surface weather.

April 24, 2014

Today it rained most of the day, overnight we still have chance for more rain, and then fog in the morning. Since yesterday Pressure centers have appeared all over the Rockies and Dakotas. The closest pressure center to us is just south of us in Illinois. To the right of this center a warm front is pushing its way upward followed by another warm front. The air mass behind the first front is leaving a trail of storms that is fueling more storms to the second front.

Current temperature is 43 F with a dew point of 42 F. Barometric pressure has dropped because of the approaching low pressure and is now at 1006 mb. Wind speed is 7 mph out of the west which hopefully should stop precipitation for a little while. Water vapor is still very present in much of the Midwest and it looks like were going to be seeing more rain this weekend.

April 23, 2014

Today weather has started making a turn for the worse. This is all because of the omega block jet stream pattern I talked about yesterday. We got some rain in the afternoon that is persisting through the night and into tomorrow. Huge hot spots of water vapor are trailing from Texas to Nebraska and some may likely head our way.

A warm front is pushing its way through the great plains, but the interesting weather data I'm seeing is a strong pressure change from Wisconsin to the Dakotas. This is causing fast winds and unstable air. Winds are converging at the fronts and likely causing the rising air and water vapor to condensate and create storms.

Current temperature is 42 F and dew point is 39 F. This is allowing air to reach its LCL easily and condensate creating the rain we've been seeing tonight. Winds are out of the east at 7mph and finally barometric pressure is high at 1016 mb.

April 22, 2014

Next week it looks like we'll move into an omega block jet stream pattern. As we talked about in class the atmospheric jam brings prolonged cloudy, cool ,wet weather to areas beneath the storm part of the pattern and days of sunshine surrounding the storm. This pattern is common in April and May as the polar jet breaks off from the maritime jet.

Since the sun's radiant energy is fairly strong, the lower atmosphere can be warmed enough to produce gusty thunderstorms with hail. In areas from the Midwest to the South to along the Atlantic Seaboard, where the sun is out for a time on any day next week there will be a risk.

Current temperature is 55 F with dew point of 21 F. Winds are out of the northwest with gusts upto 23 mph. Barometric pressure is also high at 1018.3 mb. 

April 21, 2014

Today temperature was still warm, we had winds out of the northwest at 9 mph. Currently temperature is at 55 F with a dew point of 30 F. Barometric pressure is 1013 mb, which is still relatively high, but lower than yesterday. This is because of another high pressure center pushing south from Canada.

The jet stream is relatively strait, but a slight dip is appearing at the tip of lake Michigan. This is where the two low pressure focal points are currently located which makes sense they're on the leeward side of the dip. It looks like they will bring showers to much of the east coast by tomorrow. on the left side of the dip is the high pressure system that's pushing south. Here's a picture of the current surface map. If you look at the cold front dipping down the Midwest you'll see the relative path of the jet stream.

April 20, 2014

Today we saw a drastic warm up from previous temperatures this week. This was due to a lot of factors at play in the weather. For one we had high pressure with winds coming from the south. Temperatures exceeded Saturday's highs throughout most of the Midwest and Northeast. This was largely due to the warm front and warm air traveling upward form the gulf. Tomorrow is looking like a chance of showers as the storm system that was over the plains travels north. Warm air should stick around for awhile, but showers are likely even later this week as many potential storms are developing on the surface.

April 17, 2014

Tonight there's a low pressure system centered on the north part of Lake Michigan. Winds are out of the north because of this system at 5 mph. Current temperature is 37 F while dew point is at 26 F. Despite the placement of this low pressure barometric pressure is at 1026 mb. This is because of the high pressure that has pushed across the central United States that brought all that cold air earlier this week. There isn't much water vapor in the atmosphere, but by saturday we could see some precipitation as another low pressure system pushes across the upper midwest. This system is pressing forward on a warm front which will most likely cause some mixing air and convection that will lift water vapor to its condensation level. Here's a look at the current surface map.

April 16, 2014

Tonight there's a warm front pushing north through Wisconsin. The front is associated with a low pressure system that will make its way to Eau-Claire overnight. The system is going to bring some rain and possibly snow. Wind is blowing from the southeast and is going to shift west by tomorrow. Once again snow will focus in on the Duluth Superior range.

Current temperature is 40 F and dew point is 34 F. Barometric pressure is 1015 mb and is going to rise overnight and fall into thursday. Finally the jet stream has started straitening out which will help weather gradually warm up into the weekend.

April 14, 2014

Last night we got some snow, and today I've noticed a sharp temperature change from last week. Current temperature is 34 F while dewpoint is 9 F. Winds are out of the north at 15 mph which makes temperature feel like 24 F. Barometric pressure has continued to rise and it's now at 1016 mb. The polar jet has troughed down over the central United States making cold air easy to travel down. Skies are overcast which could help trap in some heat, but not much. Air has also become much drier compared to yesterday. Tomorrow we should see skies clear up which will allow for colder temperatures. The east coast is due for much colder temperatures after their weekend warmup as a cold front pushes eastward. Some parts are even going to see some snow. Here's a surface map of this pattern.

April 13, 2014

Today we've had overcast skies, and no precipitation as of yet. There is a 40% of rain for later this afternoon, but it's hard to say what this occluded front of low pressure will do. As far as I can tell this storm still has a lot of fuel, and it's comma shaped like a mid latitude cyclone. Fuel for the storm is being drawn up from the Gulf along with warm air.

Temperature is 46 F, dew point is 38 F, and humidity 73%. Winds have changed from east to northeast as expected and temperatures aren't nearly as high as last weeks highs. Barometric pressure is going up now and is 1010 mb. All this points to cooler temperatures on the horizon, but I don't mind because I don't have A/C! Here's a picture of the storm I'm talking about.

April 12, 2014

Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a low around 40 F. Barometric pressure has fallen to 1007.5 mb since a low pressure system has emerged to our west. Severe weather is occuring in Michigan on side the warm front is pushing towards. Large ammounts of water vapor in the atmosphere are being recorded over lake Michigan, northern Michigan, and southern Wisconsin. We could start seeing some of the tomorrow if the warm front veers left.

After this relatively warm stretch of weather we've had were finally going to start seeing a cooldown by Monday. Temperatures will probably drop to the mid 40s for daytime highs. This is because of the cold front moving in and another deeper trough in the jet stream. Winds are out of the east at 12 mph, but should start shifting to the north by tomorrow. This is another factor playing into the colder temperatures we will see next week.

April 11, 2014

Right now the polar jet stream is slightly troughed over the great lakes. This is partly the reason the east coast is going to see an explosion of warm weather this weekend because it's on the upward side of the trough. Although were on the downward side of the trough and may see colder more unstable weather, we still have good weather conditions. Like I said the trough is only just forming.

Currently were in a high pressure system with a barometric pressure of 1014.7 mb. Winds are out of the west at 5 mph. Temperature is currently 60 F and dew point is 36 F. Clouds are forming at 3,500 m above the surface where temperature and dew point briefly meet. This is the only area where clouds are possible which is why the sky is almost entirely clear. Currently we have a cold front pushing down and a warm front pushing up which is going to make for some nasty weather. I'll post tomorrow on these weather patterns.

April 9, 2014

Today we have highs spread throughout the great plains generating southerly winds for us here in Wisconsin. Current temperature is 46 F and climbing with fairly calm winds at most going 5mph. We have some rain/ice/snow starting to form over the northern tip of Wisconsin. This is because a warm front just pushed by and now cold air is pushing in to take its place. Barometric pressure is 1013 mb, dewpoint is 27 F. We are forecasted for a high of 70 in Eau-Claire because of the combinations of high pressure, southerly winds from the Gulf, and a jet stream forming a trough from lake Ontario down to Florida. I will continue monitoring weather, but these next couple days are going to look ugly. Water vapor is rising as you can see from this image and it's coming towards us.

April 7, 2014

Today started out with overcast skies and rain, but it turned into a pretty nice day once the low pressure system moved by. Winds are now out of the northwest at 9mph, temperature is 50 F, and dewpoint is 36 F. Were going to start seeing a warming trend throughout the week as high pressure crosses the US. The surge of warmer air may cause overwhelming of streams and rivers. The risk increases where ground is saturated or rivers are already running high from recent rain.

April 2, 2014

Tonight the temperature is 39 F with a dewpoint of 21 F. Winds are out of the Northeast at 5 mph because of the high pressure system situated over the north tip of Michigan. We have some storm clouds in the middle of Minnesota right now that are producing snow, and were getting rain in southern and northern Wisconsin. The GOES satellite supports this with water vapor being mostly present in the middle of Minnesota and northern Minnesota. There is more water vapor in North Dakota that could lead to the forecast of snow on Friday. Weather forecasters are predicting a 100% chance of snow/sleet on Friday, but I can't pinpoint where it is coming from. Since the air is currently very stable with an LI of 18 and a KI of -2 it's not likely we will get any precipitation tonight or tomorrow morning. There are very long occluded fronts through the southeast that are going to make severe thunderstorms and a high risk for tornadoes, the first of the season. I will continue to watch this tomorrow and get a more accurate prediction of weather around the United States.

April 6, 2014

Today has been relatively nice. Current temperature is 60 F with winds out of the southwest at 9 mph. Barometric pressure is 1010 which I'd say is relatively high. The jet stream is making a steep trough through the middle of the US which is swooping back up and transporting this warm air as well. Air is still stable as it is most of the time around this area.

April 3, 2014

This morning we've had some sleet/rain mix falling and cloudy skies. Highs today are going to be near 37 F with an east wind at 10 - 15 mph. Accumulation will be less than a half inch today, but tomorrow we could see as much as 2 - 4 inches. What struck me the most when I first looked at the GOES satellite was the huge ammount of water vapor in the area of Illinois and states below the great lakes. Air has remained relatively stable since yesterday's reading. Much of the precipitation we'll see tomorrow will come from this vapor as winds continue shifting.

April 1, 2014

This morning we had mist that froze once it hit the ground which formed some slippery ice I noticed on the way down the hill. A low pressure system is centered just about us and now we're in the cold air mass. The polar jet stream has formed into another trough allowing for this cold air mass to form. The coldest regions ( in the middle of the cold air mass) are just to the north of North Dakota. Temperatures in North Dakota are very chilly today around 6 degrees while here in Wisconsin (on the edge of the cold air mass and high pressure) we're at 25 F.

The GOES satellite imagery is showing a comma shaped water vapor pattern that is curving up the east coast around the Great Lakes to Minnesota. Northeastern Minnesota is receiving a good amount of snow and is in a winter storm advisory because of this. Currently winds are 23 mph with gusts upto 32 mph out of the west. As this low continues to shift I would expect the wind direction to become more north or northwest. With the steep pressure gradient created by this low and the high pressure moving in winds have picked up from yesterday. Barometric pressure is slightly higher than yesterday at 1005 mb and I would expect it to continue rising. Below I have a picture of later week forecasts showing the this cold air mass pushing through while warm humid maritime gulf air pushes up creating snow and rain.